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Taiwan TIMES Model



 
   
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Evaluation Framework of Taiwan TIMES Model

Input data of Taiwan TIMES Model are mainly sourced from local statistics and research reports. Some data have to be estimated from local or foreign research reports because lack of sufficient information (i.e. insufficient data on new technological cost and efficiency related to business core competency). Occasionally, the ITRI team need to adjust the evaluation method of the technology parameters due to data availability. For increasing the practical contribution of the model in policy support, the experts in related field have been invited to review the logicality and reality of model parameters (i.e. consulting light experts about the trend of lighting technology).

Figure 1 Evaluation Framework of Taiwan TIMES Model
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  1. 1. To input the social-economic prospect of Taiwan: to use econometric model and time series model to project the future ESD by sector in Taiwan based on the social-economic prospect of Taiwan (like population, industrial structure and economic growth trends);
  2. 2. To update and maintain technology database: to collect and review the existing technologies of Taiwan TIMES Model periodically;
  3. 3. To decide demand-side scenario: to investigate the existing and feasible demand-side strategies of energy-saving and carbon reduction and new technology of Taiwan;
  4. 4. To determine supply-side scenario: to survey the existing and feasible supply-side strategies of energy-saving and carbon reduction and Taipower's 1 Long-Term Power Development Plan, including Renewable Development Target, import limitation of energy resources, Periodic Regulatory Goals of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, new technology and related diffusion constraint, etc.

Finally Taiwan TIMES can be used to project the pathway of Taiwan’s energy transition associated with the abovementioned scenarios under the minimum energy system cost. If necessary, users can conducted stochastic analysis on key parameters.

Maintenance Mechanism of Taiwan TIMES Model

Taiwan TIMES Model is a bottom-up energy engineering model, including over hundreds of technology categories and thousands of input parameters. Hence the maintenance mechanism of this technology-rich database plays a great role in obtaining empirical and robust simulation. In order to ensure the reliability of the complex technology database, the ITRI team have devoted in improving the maintenance mechanism of Taiwan TIMES Model. The mechanism has been established and periodically executed as shown in Figure 2 according to the modeling and application experiences.

Input data of Taiwan TIMES Model are mainly sourced from local statistics and research reports. Some data have to be estimated from local or foreign research reports because lack of sufficient information (i.e. insufficient data on new technological cost and efficiency related to business core competency). Occasionally, the ITRI team need to adjust the evaluation method of the technology parameters due to data availability.  For increasing the practical contribution of the model in policy support, the experts in related field have been invited to review the logicality and reality of model parameters (i.e. consulting light experts about the trend of lighting technology).

  Frequency Parameter Data Sources
Calibration Every Year
  1. Energy Service Demand (COM_PROJ)
  2. Efficiency (FLO_FUNC)
  3. Share of Input Energy (FLO_SHARE)
  4. Activity & Capacity (ACT, CAP)
  5. Availability (AF)
  6. Stock (PRC_RESID)
  1. Production Statistics
  2. Yearbook of Industry
  3. Energy Audit Database
  4. Household Statistics
  5. Economic Statistics
  6. Transportation Statistics
  7. Energy Balance
Energy Service Demand Every Year
  1. Energy Service Demand (COM_PROJ)
  1. Economic Projection
  2. Environmental Impact Assessment
  3. Population Projection
  4. Transportation Projection
Supply-side Scenario Every Year
  1. New Capacity (NCAP)
  2. Capacity Stock of Power Station (PRC_RESID)
  3. Activity & Capacity of RE (ACT,CAP)
  4. LNG Import Limitation (IMPLNG ACT_BND)
  5. Activity & Capacity of Cogeneration System (ACT,CAP)
  6. Availability (AF)
  1. Taiwan’s Power Development Plan
  2. Plan of LNG receiving Terminal
  3. Renewable Development Target
  4. Cogeneration Development Strategy
Main Technology Databases(Energy Refinery, Industry, Residential and Service , Transportation) Every 4 or 5 Years in Turn
  1. Review of mode of ESD projection (COM_PROJ)
  2. Efficiency Trend (FLO_FUNC)
  3. Share of Input(FLO_SHARE)
  4. Economic Costs(NCAP_COST, NCAP_FOM)
  5. Availability (NCAP_AF)
  6. Market Share (FLO_MRKPRK)
  7. Lifetime of Capacity (NCAP_TLIFE)
  1. World Energy Technology Prospect
  2. Domestic Survey and Statistic Report
  3. Domestic Technical Report
  4. Expert Consultant
  5. Energy Audit Database, MEPS Profile
  6. Market Research

Figure 2 Maintenance Mechanism of Taiwan TIMES Model

 

 


1Taipower, the Taiwan Power Company, is a state-owned electric power industry in Taiwan.




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