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臺灣能源期刊


臺灣能源期刊發行
創刊日期: 102年11月30日
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臺灣能源期刊第6卷第2期內容 出刊日期:June, 2019
 
題目 生質燃料與煤炭混燒對我國電力結構影響研究
Title Influence of Biomass and Coal Co-firing on the Power Construction
作者 韓佳佑、陳治均
Authors Chia-Yu Han, Jyh-Jun Chen
摘要 根據台電10610方案可知,燃煤電廠裝置容量於2015至2025年共新增3.8 GW,但發電占比依政策規劃從2016年45.4% (含民營)減少至2025年30%,可預期在2030年,將有部分新增燃煤機組因減碳壓力而閒置。因此,本文藉由情境設計與TIMES-ED模型運跑提出以生質煤替代燃煤,作為解決閒置燃煤電廠之配套方案。而本文進一步釐清生質煤與煤炭混燒所衍生的懸浮微粒排放議題,並以外部成本概念探討對電力結構影響。本文所提出的情境有基準情境、情境1、情境2與情境3,其差別在於基準情境不考慮減碳目標,情境1至3將NDC及溫減法的減碳目標納入考慮。情境1燃煤發電不考慮混摻生質煤,情境2和情境3在2020年混摻比假設為20%,至2050年分別成長至40%及80%。由結果可知,在2040年後,燃氣發電已無法滿足嚴峻的減碳目標,在零碳電力裝置容量發展已達上限之情況下,使得情境3 (2040年混摻60%,2050年80%)中的生質煤與煤炭混燒技術有明顯成長,能有效解決閒置燃煤電廠。故至2050年,電力發展順序應以零碳技術(太陽光電、風力發電等)為主,其次為生質煤與煤炭混燒技術。若情境3考慮生質煤與煤炭混燒的外部成本,相較於情境2 (2050年混摻比40%)其在2045年後仍有較高的燃煤發電占比,可知提高生質燃料與煤炭混摻比是影響混燒技術未來在國內發展的關鍵因素之一,建議可先解決生質料源不足並降低其成本。本文研究成果有助於釐清生質煤與煤炭混燒技術在我國減碳路徑上所扮演之角色,並作為政府未來技術布局之參考依據。
關鍵字 電力部門,生質燃料,TIMES-ED,燃煤發電
Abatract According to “Taipower 10610 project”, the installed capacity of coal power plant increases 3.8GW from 2015 to 2025, but the generation mix of coal-fired including private owned company decreases from 45.4% to 30% during 2016–2025. Thus, it is expected part of coal-fired units newly installed will be idle after 2030 due to the carbon reduction. The paper proposes the replacing coal with bi-coal (co-firing of coal and bi-coal) as alternative to solve the idle coal-fired units by scenario studies and TIMES-ED simulation. The influence of emissions of particulate matter (PM) by co-firing of coal and bi-coal on the generation mix is also considered in terms of external cost. The scenarios proposed in the paper include business as usual (BAU), scenarios 1, 2 and 3 in terms of ratio of co-firing, in which the BAU does not consider the carbon reduction, but scenario 1–3 takes the “NDC” and “Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act” into account. Among the scenario 1–3, scenario 1 does not consider the co-firing of coal and bio-coal, but it is assumed 20% in 2020 and increases linearly to 40% and 80% respectively in scenarios 2 and 3. Based on the results, the 60% of co-firing in 2040 and 80% in 2050 in scenario 3 can be as alternative for the idle coal-fired units, but it is not in scenario 2. In scenario 3, the emission factor of coal-fired generation with co-firing is more beneficial for carbon reduction than the gas-fired generation after 2040; on the other hand, due to the limitation of the available zero-carbon technologies and installed capacity, the generation of co-firing by bi-coal and coal correspondingly increases. Therefore, it shows that in order to achieve the target of carbon reduction in 2050, the development of zero-carbon generation technology, such as wind power and PV, is the first priority and then is the low-carbon co-firing technology. If the external cost of PM is considered in scenario 3, the mix generation of coal-fired is larger compared with the one in scenario 2 (40% co-firing in 2050). It can conclude the ratio of co-firing of coal and bi-coal is one of the key points for the development in the future. The insufficient for biomass and cost is the main issue for increasing the co-firing ratio. The results in the paper can clarify the role of bio-coal and coal co-firing technology in the carbon reduction path, and provide the reference for future technology deployment.
Keywords power sector, biomass, TIMES-ED, coal-fired generation.
 
 
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