臺灣能源期刊第7卷第4期-臺灣能源期刊論文全文-能源期刊-能源知識庫

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臺灣能源期刊論文全文

出刊日期：December, 2020

Title: The Strategy of Photovoltaics Technology Development in Mid- and Long-Term in Taiwan

摘要: 近年來政府積極推動再生能源的布建，以達成2025年再生能源發電占比20%之目標，而太陽光電(Photovoltaic, PV)的建置受到地理環境與氣候因素等自然條件的限制，雖然目前政府已盤點三點一萬公頃土地建置PV電廠，實際可以興建的場址仍然相當不易選定，如何提高PV的效率以及技術選擇種類，以降低土地使用面積，並能解決PV建置面臨的挑戰，實為未來PV是否可以大規模成長的關鍵因素。有鑑於此，本研究設計參考情境及減碳情境，利用國際通用能源工程模型TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System)進行分析，參考情境分析顯示，在我國中期PV暫時不具發展性，隨著國際燃料成本上揚以及PV成本下降，2035年以後PV相較於燃氣機組將更具競爭優勢，減碳情境分析顯示，2025年PV發電量已明顯增加，此時透過精準的天氣預報，可降低燃氣備用機組數量。另外，對於我國PV中長期之技術發展策略，以及PV建置可能面臨的挑戰，本文亦提出相關的建議。

Abatract: In recent years, the government has actively promoted the deployment of renewable energy to achieve the goal of 20% renewable energy generation in 2025. However, the construction of PV is limited by natural conditions such as geographical environment and climate factors, although the government had selected 310,000 hectares of land to construction PV power plants, the actual sites that can be built are quite difficult to select. How to improve the efficiency of PV and increase different types of technology choices to reduce the land area using by PV and solving the challenges of PV will become key factors for the largescale growth of PV. Therefore, this study designs reference case scenario and mitigation scenario, and uses internationally recognized TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) energy engineering model to propose the strategy of PV technology development. Reference case scenario shows, PV is not developed in Mid-term in Taiwan. With the increase of international fuel cost and the reduction of PV cost, PV is more competitive than gas power generation after 2035. Mitigation scenario shows that PV power generation has increased significantly in 2025. It shows that through accurate weather forecasts will reduce the reserved number of gas turbine. Besides, strategies for technical development of PV in mid- and long-term in Taiwan, and suggestions for the challenges that PV may face are also purposed in this study.