臺灣能源期刊發行
- 創刊日期：
102年11月30日
- 發行所：
經濟部能源署
- 發行人：
游振偉
- 地址：
台北市復興北路2號13樓
- 電話：
02-2772-1370
- 執行單位：
財團法人工業技術研究院
- 地址：
新竹縣竹東鎮中興路四段195號26館
- 服務專線：
03-5916006
- 服務信箱：
- 總編輯：
王漢英胡均立
- 顧問：
王運銘童遷祥楊日昌
- 執行主編：
劉子衙陳志臣
- 編輯委員：
方良吉王錫福李堅明李叢禎林師模馬鴻文陳介力陳希立廖芳玲廖肇寧劉文獻蕭志同顧洋(依筆畫順序排列)
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臺灣能源期刊論文全文
臺灣能源期刊第11卷第1期內容
出刊日期：March, 2024
- 題目
- 國際油價對消費者分類物價的不對稱轉嫁效果： 亞洲四小龍國家案例
- Title
- Asymmetric Pass-Through of International Oil Price to Disaggregated Consumer Prices: The Case of the Four Asian Dragons
- 作者
- 周國偉 陳疆平 林柏君 薛清松
- Authors
- Kuo-Wei Chou, Chiang-Ping Chen, Po-Chun Lin, Ching-Sung Shiue
- 摘要
- 本研究應用不對稱油價轉嫁方程式，探討亞洲四小龍經濟體(臺灣、韓國、香港、和新加坡)的 CPI七大基本分類物價遭逢正、負向油價衝擊之反應。實證模型考量通膨滯後項及國內、外總體控 制變數等，以利較精確地衡量油價衝擊之短期及長期效果。本研究發現油價變化確實對通膨存在不 對稱轉嫁，但多半卻是負向油價衝擊效果高於正向油價衝擊時。換言之，油價下跌可幫助抑制通 膨；然若在物價相對穩定下，油價下跌卻很可能使經濟體系面臨潛在通貨緊縮風險。而長期透過體 系傳遞機制及反應後，也將擴大油價對通膨的影響幅度。此外，油價對通膨之轉嫁程度亦和商品之 能源密集度有關。最後，香港及新加坡的食物類物價和油價上漲存在反向轉嫁關係，但臺灣則會因 油價下跌而推升食物類通膨。本研究結果突顯決策當局在面臨油價波動時，可彈性地依油價衝擊方 向及商品類別擬定干預措施，也許更能有效提高物價穩定政策的執行效率。
- 關鍵字
- 油價，CPI通膨，分類物價，不對稱轉嫁，亞洲四小龍
- Abatract
- This study applied the asymmetric oil price pass-through equation to explore the response of the seven disaggregated consumer prices to positive and negative oil price shocks in Four Asian Dragons (Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore). Our empirical model considered the lags of inflation and domestic and foreign control variables to more accurately measure the short-run and long-run effects of oil price shocks. Empirical findings showed that oil price asymmetrically pass-through into inflation, but the effects of a negative oil price shock were greater than that of a positive oil price shock. In other words, decrease in oil prices can help curb inflation; however, if price levels are relatively stable, decrease in oil prices are likely to expose the economic system to potential deflation risks. In the long-run, the impacts of oil prices on inflation will also be expanded through the transmission mechanism and reaction of the economic system. In addition, the degrees of oil prices pass-through into inflation were also related to the energy intensity of the commodity. Finally, there were reverse pass-through effects on food prices and increases in oil price in Hong Kong and Singapore. In Taiwan, the decrease in oil price will push up food inflation. These results highlighted that when faced with oil price fluctuations, decision-making authorities can flexibly formulate intervention measures based on the direction of oil price shocks and commodity categories, which may more effectively improve the implementation efficiency of price stabilization policies.
- Keywords
- Oil Price, CPI Inflation, Disaggregated Prices, Asymmetric Pass-Through, Four Asian Dragons