臺灣能源期刊發行
- 創刊日期：
102年11月30日
- 發行所：
經濟部能源署
- 發行人：
游振偉
- 地址：
台北市復興北路2號13樓
- 電話：
02-2772-1370
- 執行單位：
財團法人工業技術研究院
- 地址：
新竹縣竹東鎮中興路四段195號26館
- 服務專線：
03-5916006
- 服務信箱：
- 總編輯：
王漢英胡均立
- 顧問：
王運銘童遷祥王人謙
- 執行主編：
劉子衙陳志臣
- 編輯委員：
方良吉王錫福朱家齊李堅明李叢禎林師模馬鴻文陳希立廖芳玲廖肇寧劉文獻蕭志同顧洋(依筆畫順序排列)
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臺灣能源期刊論文全文
臺灣能源期刊第2卷第4期內容
出刊日期：December, 2015
- 題目
- 應用臺灣TIMES模型進行我國長期電力供需規劃
- Title
- Long-Term Electricity Supply-Demand Planning Simulation Using Taiwan TIMES Model
- 作者
- 郭瑾瑋、周裕豐、洪明龍、劉子衙
- Authors
- Ching-Wei Kuo, Yu-Feng Chou, Ming-Lung Hung, Tzu-Yar Liu
- 摘要
- 電力負載受生活習性、用電行為及氣候變化趨勢的影響，且隨著再生能源發電占比提高、儲能技術的發展與節電策略的推行等，電力供需規劃日漸複雜。因此，各國政府積極發展分析方法以於長期規劃下能細緻考量動態的電力供需情形，希冀藉由短中長期負載預測以掌握電力用戶之負載需求，從而規劃國內短中期之節能重點與長期電源開發方案，以達供需平衡與穩定電力供應。鑑於電力供需穩定與電源開發規劃應同時考量需求面負載特性與供給面發電特性，並就能源安全、電力穩定、環境與經濟等面向綜合評估，選擇最適之多元能源配比。此外，在規劃未來發電結構時，政府節電措施與抑低尖峰負載措施對電力系統尖、離峰負載與負載曲線均有一定程度的影響。因此，本研究應用TIMES能源工程模型可考量需求面負載與供給面燃料別機組發電的季節性、每日及每小時間的特性，以更完整的評估我國中長期電力供需規劃，並應用TIMES模型評估政府節電措施與抑低尖峰負載措施對電力系統尖、離峰負載與發電結構的影響。
- 關鍵字
- 電力供需規劃、尖峰負載、臺灣TIMES模型、timeslice機制
- Abatract
- Facing the challenges of global climate change and consumer behavior change, electricity supply-demand planning has become more and more complicated. Under the current Taiwan' electricity system, increasing the share of renewable energy resources make securing the stability of electricity grid more difficult. The government have to apply an appropriate methodology to assess the complex, dynamic development of electricity demand and supply sides. By using the appropriate methodology, the authorities can explore the electric power development and energy conservation pathway in order to achieve the balance and stability of electricity supply and demand in short, medium, and long terms. From the national perspective, energy policies have to choose to develop a diverse mix of energy sources in favor of green industry maturity and environmental protection as well as energy security and power system stability. Furthermore, the measures of energy conservation and peak-load management have to be evaluated to reduce the electricity consumption in peak hours in favor of balancing the difference between supply and demand sides. Based on the technology-rich databases, this study adopted the Taiwan TIMES model to provide the projection of seasonal, daily, hourly load patterns and the possible mix of energy sources in order to comprehensively assess Taiwan's short, medium, and long-term electricity supply-demand planning. At the same time, our simulation considered the energy conservation and demand side management. Our conclusions suggested that the consideration of generation patterns of power supply could highlight the benefit of intermittent renewable to the electric power development, and that the reduction of peak load would be helpful to decrease the requirements of installing the fossil fuel power systems.
- Keywords
- Electricity Supply-Demand Plan, Peak Load, Taiwan TIMES Model, Flexible Time Slicing Mechanism