能源知識庫

重點摘述

台灣政府為增加電力供給結構中再生能源之比例，在2009年7月8號正式發佈「再生能源發展條例」，其條例施行將對於台灣之經濟、能源與環境有顯著之影響。本研究目的是建立一個在不同電力結構下之動態分析模型，預估未來於「再生能源發展條例」施行過程中，並同時提高燃氣發電占比，可能對於我國之供電成本、政府之支出、二氧化碳排放量與能源價格之波動影響。本研究主要以不同比例再生能源與天然氣供給結構，並逐步淘汰燃煤電力供應下，進而產生不同之電力供應結構。研究結果顯示:

(1)逐步提高再生能源使用之比例時，會提高供電成本，物價之波動漸進趨緩，以及減少二氧化碳之排放量；

(2)相較其它情境，逐步提高燃氣發電量之比例時，供電成本較低，但物價之波動較高與減少二氧化碳之排放量較少。

In order to support electricity generation from renewable energy, Taiwan government issued the “Renewable Energy Development Act” on July 8, 2009. This policy, as well as an increased utilization of gas-fired power generation, may place impacts on economy, energy and environment in Taiwan. The purpose of this study is to establish a system dynamics model of electricity supply structure to evaluate the impacts of introduced policy on power cost (energy), government expenditure, CO₂ emission (environment) and price fluctuation (economy). Three scenarios are generated with different electricity supply structures, i.e. varied proportion of renewable energy while phasing out coal-fired power generation with natural gas and renewables. The results show that increases in renewable energy supply will drive rises in power generation cost, create higher wholesale price fluctuation, and reduce CO₂ emissions.