臺灣能源期刊發行
- 創刊日期：
102年11月30日
- 發行所：
經濟部能源署
- 發行人：
游振偉
- 地址：
台北市復興北路2號13樓
- 電話：
02-2772-1370
- 執行單位：
財團法人工業技術研究院
- 地址：
新竹縣竹東鎮中興路四段195號26館
- 服務專線：
03-5916006
- 服務信箱：
- 總編輯：
王漢英胡均立
- 顧問：
王運銘童遷祥王人謙
- 執行主編：
劉子衙陳志臣
- 編輯委員：
方良吉王錫福朱家齊李堅明李叢禎林師模馬鴻文陳希立廖芳玲廖肇寧劉文獻蕭志同顧洋(依筆畫順序排列)
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臺灣能源期刊論文全文
臺灣能源期刊第6卷第4期內容
出刊日期：December, 2019
- 題目
- 我國缺電風險之社會因子分析
- Title
- Study on Social Factor Analysis of Power Shortage Risk in Taiwan
- 作者
- 王京明
- Authors
- King-Min Wang
- 摘要
- 傳統的缺電風險因子分析方式主要著重於發電機組的可靠性評估，這使得缺電風險的探討忽略了電力產業的整體面各項供需因素，尤其是需求面影響負載變化的因素。本研究嘗試從電力供需整體面探討影響缺電風險的社會因子，探討範圍不再僅侷限於發電機組的狀況，而是同時亦探討可能影響缺電風險的各項社會、經濟與環境因素，以期能有助於未來缺電風險管理策略之有效研擬。本研究分析的結果顯示，電力需求端的變數，包括GDP (國內生產毛額)、製造業生產、人口數、氣溫等因素，都會顯著地影響缺電機率而造成缺電之風險；在供給端變數方面，傳統機組裝置容量的增加可以顯著地降低缺電機率，而再生能源發電量的增加，亦會影響缺電機率，但由於目前我國再生能源發電占比仍低，因此其影響效果尚不顯著。最後，依據評估結果及推估之各項社會、經濟與環境因素對缺電風險之衝擊影響，希望能有助於政府未來規劃電力供需結構與電力產業低碳轉型的健全發展政策。
- 關鍵字
- 缺電風險，備用容量，電力系統可靠性，失載機率
- Abatract
- The traditional method of power shortage risk assessment mainly focuses on the reliability of power generation units. This makes the evaluation of power shortage risk neglect the whole supply and demand factors of the power industry, especially the factors that affect the load change on the demand side. This study attempts to explore the factors affecting the risk of power shortage from the overall perspective of power supply and demand. The scope of the study is no longer limited to the status of the generator set, but also to explore various social, economic and environmental factors that may affect the risk of power shortage. It will contribute to the effective development of future power shortage risk management strategies. The results of this study show that the variables at the electricity demand side, including GDP, manufacturing production, population, temperature, etc., will significantly affect the probability of power shortage and cause the of risk the power shortage. In the electricity supply side, the increase of the capacity of the traditional generation unit can significantly reduce the probability of power shortage and the increase in the amount of renewable energy can also reduce the probability of power shortage. However, due to the current low proportion of renewable energy in the generation mix, the effect is not significant. Finally, based on the assessment results and the impact of various social, economic and environmental factors on the risk of power shortage, it is hoped that the research results will help the government to plan the sound supply and demand structure and the sound development policy of the low-carbon transformation of the power industry.
- Keywords
- Power shortage risk, Reserve Margin, Power system reliability, Loss of load probability