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臺灣能源期刊論文全文

臺灣能源期刊第8卷第3期內容

出刊日期:September, 2021

題目
中共南海軍事作為對我能源安全之影響
Title
The Influence of China’s Military Actions in the South China Sea On Taiwan’s Energy Safety
作者
劉啟正
Authors
Chi-Chang Liu
摘要
在2019年6月份,2艘載運油品分別前往臺灣和新加坡的油輪,在阿曼灣遭不明魚雷或水雷攻 擊,其中前往臺灣的油輪「前線牽牛星」(Front Altair)號所載運臺灣中油公司所採購的石油腦遭燒 毀。可以發現,襲擊若發生在世界上最重要的幾條海上運輸航道,對區域內國家造成直(間)接影 響,至今能源安全已成為各國非傳統安全的重要課題之一。我國每年超過80%的原油進口來自中東 地區及超過90%天然氣運補航線都通過南海航道。因此,南海航道安全攸關我國能源供應穩定,政 府必須加以重視。在美國與日本、菲律賓等國,簽定共同防禦協定及美國與臺灣維持重要的軍事合 作關係下,依政府「聯美抗中」的政策,及在大國與週邊國家抗「中」氛圍愈益濃厚,且聚焦在南 亞之邊緣地帶時,應再檢視如何減少中共對我國能源航道安全的影響。我國正處在能源轉型的關鍵 時代,沒有能源安全就沒有國家安全,所以本文研究目的是在釐清中共近年在南海軍事作為的狀 況,及其與美、日、東協相關國家可能產生之軍事衝突態樣,對我國能源安全產生之威脅,並探討 因應之道。本次研究以風險管理的概念去列出可行的風險對策,以建構一個穩定、低風險的能源體 系。
關鍵字
能源安全,中共,天然氣,南海軍事作為,風險管理
Abatract
In June 2019, two oil tankers en route to Taiwan and Singapore respectively were hit by unidentified torpedoes or mines in the Gulf of Oman. The naphtha purchased by the CPC Corporation onboard the oil tanker heading to Taiwan, the Front Altair, caught fire after the attack and was completely destroyed in the incident. It is therefore quite obvious that energy safety is a critical non-traditional security issue for all nations nowadays, because an energy-related attack on any of the world’s most important oil transportation routes will immediately generate direct or indirect impacts on regional countries. Over 80 percent of Taiwan’s crude oil imports come from the Middle East each year, and more than 90 percent of the liquid natural gas imports transit the South China Sea. As a result, the Republic of China (ROC) government should pay extra attention to the safety of the shipping routes through the South China Sea due to its influence on the stability of the ROC’s energy supply. Currently the United States has mutual defense treaties with Japan and the Philippines, and also maintains a significant military cooperation with the ROC. Most regional countries have become more cautious against China, and are focusing on the peripheral regions of South Asia. With the current policy to side with the United States against China, the ROC government should reexamine how to reduce China’s influence on the security of the energy transportation routes. The ROC is at a critical moment in energy transition right now, and without energy security, there is no national security. The purpose of this research is to review China’s military actions in the South China Sea in recent years, and to examine possible military conflict patterns between China and different countries such as the United States, Japan, and ASEAN member states. In addition, the related impacts on energy safety and the ROC’s proper response will also be discussed. This research also outlines feasible risk strategies using risk management concepts, in order to construct a stable and low-risk energy system.
Keywords
energy safety, People’s Republic of China (PRC), natural gas, military actions in the South China Sea, risk management.