臺灣能源期刊第4卷第4期-臺灣能源期刊論文全文-能源期刊-能源知識庫

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臺灣能源期刊論文全文

出刊日期：December, 2017

Title: A Model for Forecasting of Solar Power Annual Electricity and Its Strategy Application

摘要: 本研究透過線性規劃的數學方法，建構太陽光電的年發電量預測模型，結合情境的設計與分析，探討太陽光電於2025年的年發電量機率分布曲線，並進一步針對年發電量預測模型的各項參數，包含效能遞減率、整體的影響與損失係數、各區全天空日射量的相關程度、土地來源、各年度裝置量策略及不同目標式等，進行敏感度分析，探討各個參數對於年發電量機率分布曲線的影響。研究分析成果發現，效能遞減率及整體的影響與損失係數對於發電量期望值有較高的影響，因此，建議政府後續可透過獎勵或加嚴相關規範，來督促廠商選用較佳的太陽光電產品，其將有助於協助政府更好的達成能源轉型，此外，亦建議政府須將太陽光電盡量集中架設於陽光較佳的區域，以提升太陽光電年發電量的期望值，其有助於達成再生能源的政策目標。另外，若調整各年度裝置量策略及各地區的裝置順序，可在犧牲少數的2025年發電量期望值，進而有效的提升2016年至2025年整體太陽光電的發電量，進而對於解決全球暖化的問題盡更大的心力。

Abatract: The paper utilized linear programming to develop a model for forecasting of solar power annual generation. The probability distribution of solar power annual generation is analyzed and compared during four scenarios. Several parameters including degradation rates, total effect and loss coefficient, correlation of solar insolation between regions, land source, deployment strategy, and object function are analyzed in this article. Through sensitivity analysis, each parameter can be analyzed the influence for the probability distribution of solar power. The research result reveals the apparent influence of expected value of solar power annual generation is from degradation rates and total effect and loss coefficient. Hence, the government can promote the high performance solar photovoltaic products through incentives and harder regulations. Accordingly, the goal of energy transformation can be achieved more successfully. Furthermore, setting solar photovoltaic in solar-rich regions could increase the expected value of solar power annual generation and achieve the renewable energy policy objectives. If the current PV deployment strategy were modified, the expected value of total solar generation from 2016 to 2025 could be increased obviously as a consequence of decreasing some 2025 solar power annual generation expected value, and it can contribute more effort to global warming.